Wednesday, June 15, 2011

NBA Finals

Glad to be right eventually. At the start of the playoffs in my first NBA blog, I stated Dallas would beat Miami in 7 games. Well, it only took this veteran filled squad 6 to do the job. The doubt that surrounded this team all season long was astronomical. "Experts" were saying that if they didn't make a blockbuster trade at the deadline, they wouldn't be real contenders. I didn't understand that seeing as they had one of the league's top records at the time and were playing phenomenally when healthy. Even when Caron went down, they eventually picked things back up.

They were selected as the team most likely to lose to a lower seed in the first round in the entire playoffs. Who would guard Aldridge? They handily beat Portland in 6, which should've been 5 but a Brandon Roy miracle delayed the inevitable.

They had no shot against the 2-time defending champ Lakers. Who would guard Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum? Matt Barnes had the "blue print" to beat Dallas.  LA couldn't win a single game and got embarrassed in the 4th and final game of the sweep, 122-86.

Even during the OKC-Memphis that went to 7 as the Mavs waited to find their next opponent, people were saying the winner of that series should be favored against Dallas. When OKC came out on top, the youth and athleticism was supposed to be too much for Dallas to handle. Who would guard Durant and Westbrook? Dallas took care of them in 5 hard fought games, their lone loss coming when OKC's bench couldn't miss in the 4th quarter that saw Durant as the only starter to play. After that game that OKC won and tied it at 1-1, I knew the series was over. If it took that unbelievable play from their bench to barely win, they had no shot. Dallas preceded to win the next 3 games.

Miami was the popular consensus pick in the finals. One "expert" even predicted a Heat Sweep. How could a team with two of the top 5 players in the world lose a series? They dominated the first three rounds, winning each 4-1 and beating the best team record wise in the NBA in Chicago. We all know the story from there. Miami won Game 1 thanks to incredible 3-point shooting from Lebron. I knew that historically he is a very poor downtown shooter and guess what happened. He shot just over 25% from 3 the rest of the series, not to mention his inability to close games. That role went to Dirk. He lead the charge in the series saving Game 2 comeback and even when his shots weren't falling like in Game 6, he wouldn't be denied in the 4th. He shot 5-8 for 10points in the last quarter of the series.

I must say I love how JET responded to his own trash talk. People thought it would wake the beast that is Lebron James. Nope. "Let's see if he can defend me like that for seven games." He couldn't even do it for 6, getting outscored by Terry by 19 after he made that statement in the final 3 games, not to mention he outscored Lebron during the entire series. Sure, Miami has 2 top 5 players, but Dallas had the BEST player in the world. Not to mention he had all the right pieces around him along with phenomenal chemistry. Barea, Terry, and Dirk could all take over a game offensively at any given moment. Even Kidd, Stevenson, and Marion could get hot and light you up. Peja didn't play much this series due to matchup issues, but I have to give him credit because he was an integral piece during the run to the finals. Couldn't have done it without him. The lineup with Peja, Dirk, Haywood, Barea, and Terry on the floor proved to be the best lineup for Dallas in terms of +/- all playoffs long.

Miami simply didn't have the team work to win this series. Dallas simply wanted it more and played with passion. All those questions about who would guard all these star players, Aldridge, Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Westbrook, Durant, James, Wade, Bosh, is easy to answer. First, it starts with Marion, Stevenson, and Kidd playing phenomenal 1-on-1 defense. Then, don't forget this is one of the greatest TEAMS in recent memory. They had great TEAM defense as well. It is very difficult to contain all those names 1-on-1 for long periods of time, so when defenders slip up at time, there would be another one to cover for him. That's why they were so effective.

This is a win the world needed. They needed to really see that a team is going to beat start individuals. Dallas had the world on their side, and they didn't disappoint. You really do need to work together against the top teams to be successful, not pick on older Celtics, or young 76ers and Bulls (who didn't have much playoff experience despite their top record) based solely on talent. People really aren't even mentioning the fact that Dallas not only won the title, but were pretty dominant in doing so. They finished the playoffs with a 16-5 mark, with their largest loss coming in Miami during Game 1 but 8 points. Their 5 losses came by a combined 23points. Less than 5point difference per loss average. Unreal. Undoubtedly the best team in the NBA with the best player in the NBA.

Monday, May 16, 2011

NBA Playoffs Conference Finals

I know this is a day after Game 1 of the East Finals, but in my first post about the playoffs I had the Heat and Bulls meeting in these finals, so I'm sticking to what I said in that post, which I'm starting to regret.  But, I gotta stick with it.

East


(1) Chicago Bulls vs (3) Miami Heat
Heat in 6. They've been just as dominant as people expected them to be when the Big 3 first came together. They played hard against both Philly and Boston (which they had to because both clubs put up a hell of a fight) and made quick work of them, winning in 5 games both series. The Bulls, on the other hand, struggled against Indiana, who was a sub-500 team. Then, the Hawks gave them trouble as well. In these playoffs, Miami is playing better ball and I dont think Derrick Rose will be enough to stop LeBron and Dwyane over the course of a 7-game series.

West


(3) Dallas Mavericks vs (4) OKC Thunder
I'm not sure how I feel about this matchup for Dallas. They typically struggle facing quicker point guards due to Jason Kidd's age. The first couple rounds he had to deal with Andre Miller and Derrick Fisher. Not the most fleet of foot fellas at this point in their careers. But, Kidd was able to guard Kobe in crunch time which is a positive for Dallas. Westbrook is extremely quick though so either there's going to be a lot of help defense or someone else is going to guard him, but I don't know who else. I don't think OKC has the defense to stop Dallas enough, and as long as Russell doesn't do huge things using his speed, the Mavs should be ok. Kevin is going to have great shooting nights and bad ones, like he did against Memphis. I think the key is containing Russell, and if they do they shouldn't have a problem in this series. During the regular season they were able to contain him, as he shot 14-44 I believe. Granted, this is a completely different time of year but I still think they get it done.
Mavs in 6.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Dallas Mavs

How bout those Mavs, huh?

No one saw that coming. I've loved Dallas all season long, but I didn't expect them to win those two games in LA. Split, but not both of them. Then, not losing focus and winning both games at home to decimate the Lakers was phenomenal. Leading up to the series, no one gave Dallas a chance, except Charles Barkley. I predicted Dallas in 6 in the last blog, but 4? Against the greatest coach in NBA history and a top 10 player? Speaks volumes about Dallas. Even when they were up 3-0, people were saying that if any team was going to come back from 3-0, it was these Lakers, and if any team was going to let it happen, it was these Mavs. Well, Dallas won Game 4 by 36 points. It wasn't even close. In Phil Jackson's last game, he got absolutely slaughtered by one of the greatest shooting performances of all time.

20 threes - tied NBA playoff record
9 threes by Jason Terry - tied playoff record, best in terms of percentage. The REAL 6th man. Lamar is overrated.
6 for 6 from downtown for Peja

Even Jackson himself said he's never seen a team perform that well in a playoff game ever. Lakers deserved this though. Phil Jackson made fun of the city of Dallas. Those Hollywood boys couldn't handle a team that is actually good. Barnes talked trash before the game, claiming he had the blueprint to beat Dallas. Well, they didn't win a single game and he contributed nothing. During Game 3, Lamar Odom was talking to a Dallas fan in the stands saying that they were going to win that game and the series. They did neither. After Game 3, Kobe said he still believed they were going to win the series. They couldn't even make the next game respectable. Not only did they get outplayed, they got severely outclassed, but with Andrew Bynum on your team it's almost a guarantee that'll happen. He cheap shots people like it's his job. Doesn't even make an attempt to go for the ball. Lamar couldn't handle being beaten by the better team, and neither could Ron Artest at the end of Game 2. Funny how two of the three incidents that occurred targeted the smallest player on the court, JJ Barea. Shows how tough the Lakers really are.

LA showed no heart in this series and that's because Dallas took it out of them. Dirk came through in the clutch in Games 1 and 3, something every Laker failed to do, especially Kobe. None of those games were flukes. Dallas was simply the dominant team during that series. As I said before, Kobe struggled against New Orleans, and he didn't perform well in the second round. Everyone was saying, "What is wrong with the Lakers?" after the series. No. Nothing was wrong with the Lakers. The Mavs completely threw them off their rhythm and into a spin cycle instantly after tipoff in Game 1. Everyone talked about the height and length advantage LA had. Sorry to tell you, folks, but if they can't play basketball that's not going to mean a whole lot. Dallas is the reason people are questioning the Lakers. Nothing else.

Phil Jackson stayed in search of a threepeat, but left with the worst whooping of his life. The first sweep of his historic career and the end of a dynasty came at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks.

Even now, people are saying the team that comes out of OKC and Memphis will be favored over Dallas. I'm sure that's just the way they want it, though.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Predictions

I've got finals coming up so I'll make this quick.


East


(1) Bulls vs (5) Hawks
I see too much talent, size, and athleticism on Chicago to have this be a close series at all. Perhaps, though, Indiana laid the blue print on how to slow down Derrick Rose. Bulls in 5.

(2) Heat vs (3) Celtics
The matchup everyone wanted to see. The new boys against the old guns. Boston swept Miami during the regular season, but I expect both teams to hold serve at home all series long. Heat in 7.

West


(2) Lakers vs (3) Mavs
This is going to be an exciting series as well. No one is picking Dallas to win it, just like last series. Kobe didn't have a great series against the Hornets, and if that trend continues, Dallas should win this one with relative ease. Mavs in 6.

(4) Thunder vs (8) Grizzlies
OKC is not going to let Zach Randolph do his thing like he did against San An. They also don't have the defensive talent to contain Durant, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka. Thunder in 6.

NBA Playoffs Round 1 Wrap Up

First, let's wrap up Round 1.

East


(1) Bulls - (8) Pacers
Indiana put up a damn good fight every game, and well could've won this series, but just too much Derrick Rose early on. The Pacers had him under wraps a couple games and did an excellent job stopping him, but at that point the Bulls had it won.

(2) Heat - (7) 76ers
Philly did the same thing and Indy. The young Sixers squad came out to play and never game up in any of the games. Lots of heart from those young folks, but not nearly enough to topple King James and Co.

(3) Celtics - (6) Knicks
Games 1 & 2 easily could've gone to NY and completely changed the complexion of the series, but Boston hit the big shots in both those games and left the Knicks demoralized in MSG. Boston finished them off their with ease.

(4) Magic - (5) Hawks
This was the most surprising series to me. Perhaps I completely overestimated the Magic. I still don't think the Hawks are a great team. I simply think Orlando played terribly during the series, aside from Dwight Howard, and no one could step up to help him out.

West


(1) Spurs - (8) Grizzlies
I anticipated a hard series for the Spurs, but I didn't think they'd lose it. I'm not too surprised, considering Memphis matches up phenomenally against San An. This was probably the one team SA didn't want to face in the playoffs. There were a couple games that could've gone either way in the series, one went to the Spurs and the other went to the Griz. Could've been a different story had SA taken the first tossup game. I'm sad to see the legends that are Tony Parkey, Manu Ginobili, and THE Tim Duncan go so early. Always a great team to watch and I hope they come back strong next year.

(2) Lakers - (7) Hornets
NO startled LA early on, but not even a tweaked ankle from Kobe was going to let them lose this series. LA was just the better team.

(3) Mavs - (6) Blazers
This was a more lopsided series than it showed. After a Game 4 Portland  victory, I said the series was over. Dallas won. It took everything from their no name players and has-been superstar Brandon Roy to win that game. Not to mention Dirk and Terry shot terribly and you BARELY win the game. Portland needed everything to go right for them and everything to go wrong for Dallas to squeak by games. The Mavs came back the next two games and handled them to finish the job.

(4) Thunder - (5) Nuggets
Lots of firepower from both teams, but too much Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Both very fun teams to watch.



Monday, April 18, 2011

NASCAR at Talladega

Unreal. It was pretty much summed up in ESPN's headline of the race. It was along the lines of, "If you weren't thrilled by the finish at Talladega on Sunday, then NASCAR really is not for you." They even went so far as to state, "If you weren't thrilled by Talladega on Sunday, wake up." Truer words have never been spoken. This is as exciting as it gets, folks.

The intensity of that last lap can't be described. It was an eventful race throughout with a couple crashes taking out some people like Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne, Matt Kenseth, and Kyle Busch. Jimmie Johnson and Dale Jr were almost caught as well, but they were able to avoid anything disastrous by merely side swiping each other and still able to say in the race.

On Saturday, Dale Jr stating he thought that the whole tandem thing was silly, saying he preferred old school racing better when it was just straight up. Well, perhaps his perspective has changed after what he did on Sunday. With less than a lap to go, he got behind teammate Jimmie Johnson and they both rolled to the inside of the track by getting under teammate Jeff Gordon, the leader at the time. Next thing you know, the 6th and 5th place Earnhardt and Johnson, ended in 4th and 1st, respectively.

With the unbelievable 88/48 tandem, Jimmie was able to steal the victory by .002 seconds, tying the closest finish in NASCAR history. It that stat isn't shocking in itself, what about Mark Martin, finishing in 8th place, finishing .145 seconds behind winner Jimmie Johnson. That's how close the race was between the top 8 drivers. Absolutely absurd. Dale pushing JJ, Mark Martin pushing Jeff, Kevin Harvick pushing Clint Bowyer.

Phenomenal weekend for Hendrick Motorsports. They became only the 3rd team in history to claim the top 4 starting positions, with Jeff Gordon leading the way by winning the pole. During the actual race, though, they still performed. Jimmie Johnson in 1st, Jeff Gordon in 3rd, Dale Jr in 4th, Mark Martin in 8th. Again, all 4 separated by .145 seconds.

I can't restate enough how sick that pass down low was by the 88/48 combo. Dale knew having Jimmie in front was the faster duo and he put himself in a position where he couldn't win the race, but he made it happen for his teammate. Marvelous selflessness from Dale. This is definitely going down as one of the best races in the history folks. I don't think we've ever seen such a close finish within the top 8 like that, and I'm not sure it's ever going to happen again.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

NBA Playoffs Game 1s

With the first couple days of the playoffs done, it's already been exciting and surprising.

The Bulls squeaked by the Pacers who went ice cold the final two minutes.
Hansbrough played great for Indiana and Danny Granger came alive in the 2nd half but their choked down the stretch to give the game to the Bulls. I feel like that was their best shot to steal a game, and now they wont get any closer than that.

The Heat got all they could handle against the 76ers.
The Sixers came out firing, but Miami settled in and hit big shots. Philly came back but it just wasn't enough. AI did a great job on LeBron. I could see this being a pretty exciting series if Philly can keep LBJ under control and make it a D-Wade focused game.

The Celtics needed late game heroics to be bailed out against the Knicks.
The Knicks had this one in the bag but Ray Allen was huge all game and hit the game winner. NY can't dwell on such a heartbreaking loss and come back next game. Very physical game. Should be a great series.

The Magic got manhandled by the underdog Hawks.
Dwight Howard did everything he could and more in this matchup. 31 points in the first half and still being down? I don't know what the rest of his team was doing. If they continue to play so one-dimensional they will get swept. They're a versatile team, though, so I expect them to come out strong next game.




The Spurs came back in the clutch, but the Grizzlies ultimately took it back with a Shane Battier 3.
Matt Bonner came up huge with back-to-back 3s in the final minutes, but Battier's triple proved to be the decider. Richard Jefferson got as good a look as you're going to get in this league to tie the game but he hit back iron. I knew it was going to be a struggle for San An. Memphis is tough, but when Ginobili comes back it's over.

The Lakers got stomped by the Hornets and CP3s amazing performance.
No defense by these Lakers. Got pushed around in the paint all day. Pau Gasol is going to need to play better on both ends of the court if they want to win this series, and that's exactly what I expect him to do.

The Mavericks toughed it out against the Blazers in the 4th thanks to Dirk and J-Kidd.
After struggling all night, Dirk was extremely aggressive in the 4th and went to the line 13 times and nailed all 13 of his free throws. 18 points in the 4th and the dagger 3 from Jason Kidd iced this game for Dallas. The Mavs went almost 11 minutes without hitting a shot. If they can play that poorly and Dirk can shoot that poorly (7-20) and they STILL win the game, Portland is in trouble. Dallas did everything they could to give them the game and they couldn't take advantage. This series is as good as over.

The Thunder and Nuggets traded blows until OKC came out on top.
I feel like these two teams will be scoring in triple digits often. Great game by both teams and especially by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. This young duo is exciting as any to watch and if they stick together and do some real damage in the future. They're already going to do a good amount this postseason.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

NBA Playoffs Set

So, the NBA Playoff mathups are set. I'll be listing the matchups and stating my predictions with reasons. I'm more a follower of NBA ball over NCAA, so I'll be more in depth in these blogs.

East


(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Indiana Pacers

I really cant see the Pacers even putting up much of a fight. It's not that I think the Bulls are phenomenal, but I think the Pacers really just aren't good. Danny Granger is really the only one on that team worth noting, and he won't be able to carry the team against Derrick Rose and company. Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough will get crushed by Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, and Tim Thomas. Expect Indiana's big men to struggle mightily this series. I expect Mike Dunleavy to put up a decent performance during the series for the Pacers, though.

Bulls in 4.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Well, the talk of the NBA world will finally get to start their quest to the holy grail against the 76ers, who have been struggling as of late. There is simply going to be too much talent on this Heat team for Philly to handle. AI will do all he can for his squad, but there isn't anyone else really who can do what is needed to make this series a series.

Heat in 5.


(3) Boston Celtics vs (6) NY Knicks

Boston vs New York. The two biggest sports cities in America colliding once again (Side Note: LA doesn't even have a football team, so despite their numerous baseball, basketball, and hockey teams they can't be taken seriously as a major sports city in my opinion). New York is hungry and will be trying to take down the defending Eastern Conference Champions. Well, I don't see it happening. They'll be able to make Carmelo struggle shooting the ball. Amare won't be able to lift the team by his lonesome. Carmelo will have some decent games, but not enough to topple the Celtics.

Celtics in 6.

(4) Orlando Magic vs (5) Atlanta Hawks

I straight up think Hawks are overrated. Dwight Howard's crew will be too difficult to stop for Atlanta in this series. Joe Johnson will really need to step up if he wants to give his team a fighting chance, but Orlando plays really tough D and they'll do enough to shut down the rest of the team.

Magic in 5.



West


(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (8) Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are a young team looking to upset the old Spurs who far exceeded expectations this year. The Spurs simply have too much experience to let the Griz get the better of them. Memphis will come to play, though, but not at the level the Spurs will be at.

Spurs in 6.

(2) LA Lakers vs (7) New Orleans Hornets

LA avoided a major choke and grabbed the 2-seed with an OT win against the Kings to end the regular season. Their reward is a date with the Hornets. NO hasn't been the terrifying force they have been in the past with Chris Paul at helm and Omeka Okafor hasn't really been as good for this team as it looked on paper. No David West means no W for NO. Kobe and Co will handle this squad.

Lakers in 5.

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs (6) Portland Trail Blazers

This is, in my opinion, the 2nd most interesting matchup in these playoffs. The Blazers are a young and extremely talented team with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge headlining the team. They're fast and they can shoot the ball. Dallas, regarded as the best jump-shooting team in the league bar-none, will get all they can handle from these guys. The games will be tough, but I expect Dirk to have himself a nice series, as he has been playing phenomenally all season long. I'm a big fan of this Mavs team and see them doing big things. All the analysts are saying they wont make it out of the first round. They'll prove those "experts" wrong.

Mavs in 5.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Denver Nuggets

What a story these Nuggets have been. They lose they're best player, Carmelo Anthony, and they're experience leader and veteran, Chauncey Billups, and they seem to get better... a lot better. They lead the league in points scored and have perhaps the best all around team in these playoffs. They have no big names on the team but they work well together. Ty Lawson was seen limping off the court tonight, but assuming he's healthy, I still don't think they'll be victorious. Last year I predicted the Thunder to upset the Lakers in the first round last year, the Thunder being an 8-seed. Now, after another season to gain experience and mesh with the emergence if Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, I think the Thunder crush this feel-good Nuggets squad.

Thunder in 5.




Now, I'll give you my overall predictions rather than a round by round, which will come obviously after each round.

East


Round 1
Bulls 4-0 Pacers
Heat 4-1 76ers
Celtics 4-2 Knicks
Magic 4-1 Hawks

Round 2
Bulls 4-3 Magic
Heat 4-2 Celtics

Conference Finals
Heat 4-2 Bulls

West


Round 1
Spurs 4-2 Grizzlies
Lakers 4-1 Hornets
Mavs 4-1 Blazers
Thunder 4-1 Nuggets

Round 2
Thunder 4-2 Spurs
Mavs 4-2 Lakers

Conference Finals
Mavs 4-3 Thunder



NBA Finals
Mavs 4-3 Heat

*Predictions subject to change after witnessing teams play playoff basketball, but most likely wont.



Monday, April 4, 2011

March Madness Title Game

Congrats to the UConn Huskies on their victory as the best team in college basketball. They used an unparalleled run through the Big East tournament to gain momentum and tear up the NCAA tournament. Jim Calhoun, amidst the allegations he's gone through, was able to stay focused on the season and get the most out of his players. UConn, losers of two in a row and 4 of 5 going into the Big East tournament, ran off 11 straight wins to clinch the titles of Big East Champions and National Champions. They stayed hungry all season long and they deserve the win.

Butler, on the other hand, really didn't play well at all today. 19% shooting from the field pretty much sums up what went wrong for this team. As I watch the trophy ceremony, it was stated that this is the worst shooting performance in championship history, which probably shouldn't come as a surprise since the lowest teams would normally shoot is around 30%. I thought the guard matchup would be exciting. Both Shelvin Mack and Kemba Walker struggled, as they shot 4-15 and 5-19, respectively. Butler had difficulty making even layups. I'm not really going to go into individual stats because when a team shoots 19%, no one had a good game. But I feel Matt Howard shooting 1-13 is worth noting.

If watching the game wasn't indication enough of how poorly the teams played, the rest of the stats should. Luckily for UConn, though, Butler played significantly worse. They had 5 assists in the game whereas UConn had 6. 11 combined assists from both teams? Ball movement and teamwork was clearly a problem. UConn shot 1-11 from downtown, another stat showing how poorly they played. Granted, some of the missed shots were caused by solid defense by both teams, but shooting that poorly is inexcusable. Both teams needed to look for better shots or simply knock down the open looks they had.

UConn, the 9th best team in the Big East after the regular season, is the best team in college basketball. I think that says something about the depth of the Big East if the 9th best team can come in and win it all. Last blog I stated Butler would win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the game was a blowout in UConn's favor. Well, clearly the blowout one was the one that happened.

EDIT: Lowest scoring first half in a national championship game since 1946, when Oklahoma St and North Carolina combined for 40. UConn and Butler combined for 41. In 1946, there was no shot clock yet either.

It's been a fun tournament, folks. Since it's over I'll be talking about some NBA, NHL playoffs, NASCAR, and whatever else gets tossed into the news.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

March Madness Stats

Well, I was curious to see the parity demonstrated this tournament and decided to do some number crunching to find some averages from each round and each region. I simply averaged the scores from each round and then combined all the rounds together to get a final average throughout the course of the tournament so far. Obviously there is still one game left, but I really wanted to do it now.
First, I found the average point spread from the seeding matchups. I didn't calculate the play-in games (technically first round) just because I like this format better. I then put a win-loss ratio next to the spread average which is respective to the order of the seeds I listed. From then on I calculated it be region and found a total average for all of them, all the way up to the Final Four. Unfortunately, I don't have any stats like this from prior tournaments and I don't think any exist, so I don't really have anything to compare it to in order to make a real conclusion but I'll try just using general knowledge.

(1) (16) : 28.25 points : 4-0
(2) (15) : 18.5 points : 4-0
(3) (14) : 19 points : 4-0
(4) (13) : 5.25 points : 3-1
(5) (12) : 4.5 points : 3-1
(6) (11) : 12 points : 1-3
(7) (10) : 3.5 points : 3-1
(8) (9) : 11.75 points : 3-1
Average Spread : 12.8 points




As you can see, the closest matchups were the (7) (10), (5) (12), and (4) (13) battles by long shots. In the (6) (11) games, the (11) won 3 of the 4.

3rd Round


East : 9 points : (11) over (3)
West : 5.25 points : (5) over (4)
Southwest : 15.75 points : (11) over (3) & (10) over (2)
Southeast : 9 points : (8) over (1)
Average Spread : 9.75


The point spread dropped here, as expected in every progressing round, since the cream is rising to the top so the games will be tighter. Noted are some upsets, seeding-wise.

Sweet 16


East : 10 points : (4) over (1)
West : 11.5 points : (5) over (1) & (3) over (2)
Southwest : 10.5 points : (11) over (10)
Southeast : 8 points : (8) over (4)
Average Spread : 10 points

The point spread rose .25, so a 1 point total difference. Nothing significant.

Elite Eight


East : 7 points : (4) over (2)
West : 2 points
Southwest : 10 points : (11) over (1)
Southeast : 3 points : (8) over (2)
Average Spread : 5.5 points

Spread dropped a solid amount to a 2-possession game average. In this round 3 of the 4 lower seeds won, and the only higher seed that did was a (3) over (5) by 2 points.

Final Four


East vs West : 1 point
Southwest vs Southeast : 8 points
Average spread : 4.5 points


Spread dropped. Both higher seeds won.


Tournament Average : 9.23 points


Conclusion : The average spread was single digits. I feel as though that is pretty significant when discussing parity. Even given the almost 30points average the (1) seeds had on (16), the rest of the field played tightly enough to yield this result. I feel as though winning by 13+ would be considered a blowout, but the average for this was obviously below that. This shows that most of the games were close and intense and probably could've gone the other way very easily. All I can really say this stat shows is that this tournament produced a lot of nail-biting games and the fans were usually on the edge of their seats, whether it be a lower seed taking down a power house or a higher seed squeaking out a victory over a lower seed. Now, I hope my math is right on these since it's 5AM but I do think they're all correct. So my conclusion is that the games, on average, were not blowouts and they were damn close. This isn't even taking into account things like (1) Duke beating (8) Michigan by 2 points and (11) VCU beating (3) Purdue by 18 and (1) Kansas by 10. The parity is even closer than it seems because some of these large point differences I calculated were by lower seeds slaughtering higher seeds and higher seeds barely beating lower seeds. It wasn't always the higher seeds adding big numbers to the spread. A good deal of the time it was actually the lower seed while the higher narrowly won.
The Southwest 3rd Round is a prime example of this. The average spread is 15.75 points and I noted the (11) beat the (3) and the (10) beat the (2). I don't want people assuming these were close games and it was the other two games in the round that helped boost the numbers. The (10) and (11) won by 14 and 18 points,  respectively. These teams were clearly better than their favored counterparts.

I actually just did one more stat check for fun. Here is a round-by-round breakdown of how the lower seeds performed in the only stat that matters is. Winning.
2nd Round : 7/32 lower seeds won
3rd Round : 6/16
Sweet 16 : 5/8
Elite Eight : 3/4
Final Four : 0/2




It's been a fun tournament and that's all I got for now. I'll be watching Monday and I'll be back afterwards.



Saturday, April 2, 2011

March Madness Final Four

These two games surely didn't dissapoint. (11) VCU and (8) Butler traded blows throughout most of the game and it seemed as though neither could pull away from the other in the 2nd half, but Butler did enough to win it. VCU looked like they could stage a comeback with a potential 4-point play with 2:32 left in the game, but it wasn't meant to be. VCU obviously had a hell of a season and I'm sure the seniors enjoyed their magical ride out. Unfortunate, though, that senior guard Joey Rodriguez had to end his career as a Ram with a 1-8 shooting performance.
On the other side, senior Matt Howard on Butler didn't have a great game either, shooting 3-10 and 0-5 from beyond the arc, but he had a clutch put back to essentially seal the game, similar to the game-winner he had against (9) Old Dominion in their first game of the tournament. Shelvin Mack did huge things for Butler all night and really was the play maker, as he shot 8-11 and 5-6 from deep. Another huge reason Butler was victorious was the size of the team. They out-rebounded VCU 46-30, with a 15-5 advantage on the offensive glass. Butler is going to get another shot at a national title when they face (3) UConn. I have to give credit to VCU, though. I said it wasn't going to be close, but they proved me wrong. Every game they played I thought they would perform poorly but they played consistently well all tournament long and simply lost to a better Butler team. But not without going down with a fight.

(3) UConn and (4) Kentucky was just as intense as advertised in a low scoring affair. I thought it would be close and (3) UConn would win, and finally I was right. UConn seemed like they'd run away with it thanks to a 10point half time lead, but the young guns on Kentucky came back and almost stole the victory due to some turnovers by UConn guards. Though it was low scoring, UConn shot extremely well from inside the arc, at 22-for-37. It was their 3-point shooting that was atrocious, at 1-for-12. Kentucky certainly didn't help themselves either, shooting 4-for-12 from the charity stripe. Kentucky had a couple chances to extend the game at the end but couldn't find the basket despite decent looks. A very though night for Brandon Knight will end the dream for Kentucky. The freshman finished shooting 6-23. Kemba and the Huskies will be playing in the last game of the season.

Title Game


(3) UConn vs (8) Butler

A great matchup with two great story lines behind them each. At the beginning of the year, I don't think anyone thought these teams would be as good as they are. When looking at it from a preseason poll, UConn was less expected to be here. Butler was ranked 18 in the preseason poll after coming off a loss to Duke in the championship game. UConn, on the other hand, wasn't even ranked. They actually received 0 votes to the top 25. This was supposed to be a big rebuilding year for them and Jim Calhoun. They finished the regular season as the 9th best team in the Big East, and they something improbable happened. They did something that was never done before in Big East history. They won 5 games in 5 nights and took the crown of the Big East tournament behind the phenomenal play of Kemba Walker. Coming into the Big Dance, they showed no signs of slowing down and are still going strong. If they beat Butler, what an unreal run they had. Storming through the Big East tourney after going 9-9 in-conference during the season and still playing on fire where it really matters. Maybe a run in one tournament and not the other, but I don't think anyone could've predicted they'd be so consistent and do it in both after how their regular season played out.

I'll tell you what, I'm really excited to see the matchup between Shelvin Mack and Kemba Walker. These two guards have played great team basketball as well as individual play.

The Pick
The same thing I said for UConn vs Kentucky applies here. I think Butler has the better team, but UConn has the best player and the game changer in Kemba. I picked UConn in that matchup, but this time around I think the team is going to override the player. I'm going against what I've said since the Sweet 16 and am picking Butler all of a sudden. Butler has so much fun on the court and you can tell each guy trusts their teammates and no one is selfish on that team. They really understand how to play. I think their defense will shut down the Huskies not named Kemba Walker and UConn will struggle to shoot the ball. I will say this, though. I am a big fan of the Big East and hope UConn comes out victorious, even though like everyone I love rooting for the underdogs. Surprisingly, though, I don't think too many people feel that way about Butler. They have more experience in this situation than UConn does and they've been playing just as well as of late so I don't think they can really be considered big underdogs if underdogs at all.

Final Score: Butler (65) UConn (57)

I'll be back to discuss the title game.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

March Madness Elite 8

What a year this has been. Really no way to predict this tournament. First, let's go over what I said last blog and what I got right and wrong.

(2) North Carolina - (4) Kentucky was a well fought game by both teams. I thought it was a toss up and NC would win a tough one, but Kentucky ended up hitting huge shots and draining 3s to kill whatever momentum NC was trying to get. - Wrong

(2) Florida - (8) Butler was said to be a close game. I was right in that regard, but Florida didn't come out on top. I stated that I wanted to predict Butler to win, but I had hyped Florida up too much coming into the came I couldn't turn my back on them. Whatever. I'm saying I was half right on this one.

(3) UConn - (5) Arizona. The Wildcats definitely surprised me this game and had two solid looks at the end to win the game from downtown. I said UConn would "mop the floor" with Arizona. Obviously that didn't happen at all, but at least UConn came out with the W. Half right again.

(1) Kansas vs (11) VCU. Well, I'll say I couldn't have been more wrong here, but let's be serious. Who outside of Richmond, VA, thought VCU was going to win this game, let alone in the style they did it in. Absolutely crushed Kansas. - Wrong. I should get negative points for this one.

Discussion


The lowest seed in the final four is a 3-seed. Unreal tournament. An 8 and 11 facing each other in the Final Four? Who would've guessed. Both teams have been playing great, especially Butler. Lots of people were complaining that VCU was even in the tournament, but they're really showing that when a team gets hot, no matter what team, they're hard to stop. Kansas learned that the hard way, so let's talk about the Jay Hawks for a second. They had perhaps the easiest road to the championship out of any team of all time. Here is a list of seeds they played against: (16), (9), (12), (11). That's an average of a 12-seed. Had they beaten VCU they would've played (8) Butler to earn a spot in the title game. The fact that they couldn't take advantage of having the highest seed played against be (8) is absolutely inexcusable for this team. They really couldn't have asked for an easier path and I'm sure Kansas fans couldn't have been more excited whenever top seeds kept being taken down by these nobodies. They had the easiest road I've ever seen and couldn't even make the Final Four? What a choke by the Jay Hawks. Yes, the teams they faced got that far for a reason, but when you're a 1-seed there is no reason to lose to an 11-seed, especially the way they did. It wasn't close in the slightest. UConn, on the other hand, is still dancing behind Kemba Walker and will test their talents against a young Kentucky squad who has been looking great. The winner of that game will face the winner of (8) Butler and (11) VCU, posting the lowest combined seeding total for a Final Four matchup at 19. Despite the winner, there will be a chance that there will be a team that can potentially lay claim to the lowest seed ever to win the title. (8) Villanova in '85 is currently the lowest seed, and clearly (8) Butler can tie that and (11) VCU will top it.

Final Four


(3) UConn vs (4) Kentucky
(8) Butler vs (11) VCU

UConn and Kentucky is pretty much a toss up again. I feel that Kentucky has a better team, but UConn has the game changer on their side. I believe that in some cases superstars can definitely override a team in college ball, but seeing what Kentucky did today to UNC's  Harrison Barnes and Dexter Strickland, I think they can stop UConn. This call is a brain-heart decision. My brain says Kentucky, but my heart says UConn, who has been streaking since that Big East tournament start. I'm picking UConn, probably because I'm blinded by my desire for them to win, but whatever. I'm sticking with it. It'll definitely be a close game though.

Butler wants to get back to the title game and redeem themselves from their narrow loss to Duke last season. They'll win this one against VCU. It feels like Butler is the heavy favorite in this one since they were runner-ups last season. This has got to be the first time in a long time that Butler feels like the Goliath in a battle of this magnitude. VCU is last season's Butler and Butler is coming into this game as big brother. They've been here before. They wont be caught off guard by the Rams because, in essence, they are the Rams. Butler was in a similar position as them last year so they know that VCU could be the next Butler. Too much determination from the Bulldogs though and they take the game easily. Seems like I just cant give VCU any respect. I don't think it'll even be that close.

Title Game


(3) UConn vs (8) Butler

More to come after the Final Four.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

March Madness Sweet 16

Here we go again.
Though there were only 8 games played these past couple days, that didn't stop the remaining teams from posting multiple upsets.

First, (2) Florida and (3) BYU put up a nice OT game. Jimmer struggled, especially from beyond the arc, but the rest of the team was almost able to bail him out and take the game. Again, I'm liking Florida and expect to see them in the Final Four.

(3) UConn took out (2) SDSU with probable POY Kemba Walker leading the charge. This team is playing amazingly, especially considering the fact that had to run through 5 games to win the Big East Tournament with 0 days rest inbetween and then hop right into the Big Dance. Fatigue doesn't seem to be an issue for this team so far, but there's still a ways to go. This team has all the momentum and confidence in the world, though, so I doubt it'll be a factor. Another team I expect to see in the Final Four.

(8) Butler continued their hot run by eliminating (4) Wisconsin. Solid team play all around for the Bulldogs and strong defensive showing as well. I expect them to fall to (2) Florida, though, in the Elite Eight. I wouldn't be shocked if they win, but I really don't think they can hang with Florida right now.

(5) Arizona absolutely manhandled (1) Duke. The defending champ's POY candidate Nolan Smith really didn't show up to the game. Seemed like he was inconsistent for Duke down the stretch, but Kyle Singler had a nice game as he tried to carry the team. This Arizona team coming out of nowhere, though, proved too tough. I had them losing to (12) Memphis in the first round so needless to say I'm impressed with this squad. They wont get past (3) UConn, though.

My big upset pick, (11) Marquette over (2) North Carolina didn't really work out. North Carolina played well as a team and they're going to need to keep it up if they want to beat (4) Kentucky next round, who looked damn good in their win today.

(4) Kentucky upset (1) Ohio St.behind Brandon Knight's 30 points. With a 62-60 final score, Knight accounted for nearly half his teams points. Ohio St. struggled to shoot the ball, as they shot 32.8%, but still almost came out with the W in the end. I didn't know much about this Kentucky team heading into the tournament and I'm extremely surprised to see them this far. With the win over the #1 overall seed, though, they've got to be feeling good about themselves. Bad news for North Carolina.

(1) Kansas decimated (12) Richmond. Don't really know what to say here. Kansas played like a 1-seed and Richmond played like a 12-seed. All was right with this one. Their journey ends.

(11) VCU, on the other hand, is still going forward after squeaking out an OT victory over (10) Florida St. Exciting game from two evenly matched teams. Now, VCU's reward is a date in the Elite Eight with Kansas and their depth and athleticism.

The Matchups:

(1) Kansas vs (11) VCU
(2) North Carolina vs (4) Kentucky
(2) Florida vs (8) Butler
(3) UConn vs (5) Arizona

The Verdict:

Kansas will easily handle VCU. No contest really here from the eventual national champs.

There's no way to predict the North Carolina - Kentucky game. It'll just come down to which team is playing better on that day, plain and simple. Both teams have been playing well leading up to the game, so the determining factor will be consistency. Which team will be able to continue their solid play? I think North Carolina comes out with this one. Too much experience on the team to let a slip up happen this deep in the tournament. Kentucky can definitely come out blazing and catch NC off guard though, but I just think NC is too tough.

I think Florida - Butler will be a close one. Butler knows what it takes to get to the finals and they definitely have the talent to get them there. As I'm typing this I want to say Butler is going to win, but since Round 3 I had Florida in my Final Four, so there's no turning back now. Florida is taking this game.

UConn will mop the floor with Arizona. There's no player in the nation like Kemba Walker and I don't think Arizona will be well equipped to defend him. Again, I picked Arizona to lose the first game they played, and doesn't seem like I'm going to give them any respect yet. They're still just a fluke team in my book. If they go out there and beat UConn, I'll be damn impressed.

Predicted Final Four matchups:
(2) NC vs (3) UConn
(1) Kansas vs (2) Florida

That's it for this blog. I'll be back after the Elite Eight.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

March Madness Round 3

This surely has been an excited Round 3. As stated in the last blog, the skill gap between the top teams to the bottom clearly isn't as big as people expected. The lower ranked teams are putting up a hell of a fight if not winning the games, other than George Mason who was just the next victim in Ohio State's wake of destruction.

(4) Kentucky and (5) West Virginia put up a decent game to start the round.
(11) Marquette and (3) Syracuse played out to be a good Big East game with Marquette moving on, as predicted in the last blog.
(7) Washington almost came out on top over heavily favored (2) North Carolina.
(8) Michigan gave all (1) Duke could handle, as predicted in the last blog as well.
(5) Arizona edged (4) Texas with a controversial call.
(2) San Diego St and (7) Temple had an exciting double OT finish.
(8) Butler was the first team to take down a 1 seed, as Pitt was defeated.
(2) Notre Dame was surprised by (10) Florida St.

The MWC, which sent 2 teams, has two teams in the Sweet 16: (3) BYU and (2) San Diego St
The Big East, which sent 11 teams, has two as well: (3) UConn and (11) Marquette

Disappointing tournament by the Big East so far. With the exception of Big East teams that lost to another Big East team, the other 7 teams have lost to non Big East opponents and 5 of them have lost to a lower seed, (9) Villanova and (5) West Virginia being excluded as they lost to (8) George Mason and (4) Kentucky, respectively. Seems like the only way to salvage the tourney for the conference is to have (11) Marquette and (3) UConn in the Final Four. (11) Marquette has a difficult path, as they have to face (2) North Carolina and then most likely (1) Ohio State afterwards. (3) UConn and Kemba Walker have been hot since the start of the Big East tournament so they'll have a shot going up against (2) San Diego St and most likely (1) Duke after.

UConn has to beat SDSU. They can't lose to a mid major. Too many Big East teams have done that already. (1) Pitt, (4) Louisville, (6) St Johns, (6) Georgetown, and (9) Villanova have all done so. That's 5 loses to mid majors, 2 to Big East, and 2 to major conferences. That doesn't look good for a conference regarded as the best in the country. They can't be losing to small name schools. UConn has to show SDSU that they're simply not at the same level as Big East competition. The rest of the Big East sure as hell has convinced the nation otherwise unfortunately.

Going back to my last blog, I thought (11) Gonzaga would take down (3) BYU through their size. Well, the Zags out rebounded them 34-23 while grabbing 8 more offensive boards with a 10-2 spread, but it didn't translate to a win like I expected. They didn't do much with their second chance opportunities. Oh, and too much Jimmer. Gonzaga kept it close most of the first half, but the last few minutes consisted of Jimmer running down the court and tossing up a quick 3 and going in. It'll be fun watching them play a damn good (2) Florida team no one seems to be talking about. They've been winning convincingly, as they should be, which not a lot of teams have been doing lately. I'm pretty much thinking Final Four for them. Their path doesn't seem too difficult with BYU and either (8) Butler or (4) Wisconsin in their way.

(11) VCU continues to surprise. They absolutely decimated (3) Purdue. I haven't watched either of their games this tournament but I'll be sure to watch them if they get past (10) Florida St. Who would've guessed we'd have an (11) vs (10) matchup in the Sweet 16? The Southwest bracket has a (1), (10), (11), and (12) seed remaining. Unreal.

Notable upsets for the Sweet 16:

(11) Marquette over (2) North Carolina

That's pretty much it I guess. As far as seeding goes, I have (3) UConn over (2) SDSU. Doubt that's actually classified as an upset, though.

I'll be back after the Sweet 16.

Friday, March 18, 2011

March Madness Round 2

Well, after the 2nd round of March Madness play, there have been plenty of upsets.

(12) Richmond took down (5)Vanderbilt
(13) Morehead St squeaked by (4) Louisville
(11) VCU slaughtered (6) Georgetown
(11) Gonzaga crushed (6) St. Johns
(11) Marquette destroyed (6) Xavier

Other matchups were very close as well, such as (13) Oakland vs (4) Texas, (12) Memphis vs (5) Arizona, and (8) George Mason vs (9) Villanova.

People were saying before the Dance started that there was a huge skill gap between the top tier teams and the rest of the field, but the amount of upsets that have already occurred and the fights the other lower seeds put up seems to disprove that thought. The Big East isn't having as great a showing as expected, as they went 7-4 in their first games of the tourney. 3 of the 4 lost to teams ranked considerably lower than them, with the exception being Villanova who lost another tough game to George Mason. I still believe the Big East can do big things to further prove they are the best conference in the country, and I think Marquette (East), Pitt (South East), Notre Dame (South West), and UConn (West) have the best chances to do that.

Now, with my National Champion team Villanova already out, that leaves me to pick a new team to win the title. I think it will come down to Pitt and Kansas. The winner of that matchup in the Final Four will win the whole thing. I think Kansas will win that game and go on to take it. That doesn't mean I wont be surprised if they lose that game or even get upset along the way. All it takes is for one team to get hot at the right time and blaze through the field.

As far as Round 3 goes, here are some more notable upsets and reasons:
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU --- Gonzaga torched St Johns on the boards in their first game, and with Davies gone for BYU I don't see Jimmer being enough to stop the size and strength of the Bull Dogs.
(11) Marquette over (3) Syracuse --- I think Marquette is the team that is going to get hot and do big things and bust some brackets. I feel like people are sleeping on them and they can come out of no where to shock some teams.
Not saying it will happen, but don't be surprised if (8) Michigan takes down (1) Duke. I definitely expect them to give the Blue Devils a scare, and almost expect them to push them right to the brink after that hot play against Tennessee. Michigan is just another team I can see catching fire.
Pretty much the rest of Round 3 I have going to the higher seed.


I'll be back to discuss the results and give more predictions for the Sweet 16.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

March Madness

Villanova is gonna shock the world upsetting #1 overall ranked Ohio State in the second round. Ohio St. is completely overrated and the Wildcats are playing angry with a chip on their shoulder.
Final Four Matchups:
Villanova vs UConn, Kansas vs Pittsburgh

Notable Upsets:
(11) Marquette over (6) Xavier
(11) Marquette over (3) Syracuse
(11) Marquette over (2) North Carolina
(12) Memphis over (5) Arizona
(13) Oakland over (4) Texas
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati
(10) Michigan St over (2) Florida
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. Johns
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU
(12) Utah St over (5) Kansas St
(12) Utah St over (4) Wisconsin
(6) Georgetown over (3) Purdue

CASH